It's Not a Rise in Consumer Confidence

[talon]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/38933157/ns/business-eye_on_the_economy/

It's the annual back to school required spending of people who have children.

They don't necessarily want to spend that money, and they don't necessarily have that money to spend, but if they have school age children, there is a minimum they have to buy in order to send the children to school - winter coats, shoes, clothes for the ones they outgrew over the summer, and the filling lengthy and demanding school supply lists.

It's not a surprise and any economist surprised by an increase in spending just before school starts should be fired on the spot as being ill-informed and incapable of noting obvious spending trends. Back to school is a big one. So is holiday spending, spending at fall and spring breaks, and the end of the school year/start of summer. There is always a spike in spending at those times regardless of how depressed the economy is. To be "surprised" is to declare you aren't paying attention.